Larry Edelson is a Genious
Given the absolutely wild market moves over the past week, I’m going to use today’s column to tell you — in no uncertain terms — what’s happening and what I expect to happen over the next few months in the most important markets: Gold, silver, oil, the dollar, bonds, and the Dow Industrials. I am going to start first with silver, and I’m going to spend a little more time on it than the others, for obvious reasons. I have been warning for some time now about the dangers in the silver market. It is, bar none, the wildest, most manipulated market on the planet, full of thieves, charlatans, and pundits who have no idea what they are talking about. Many of them have attacked me verbally in the past. Some even threatened my life back in the mid-1980s. The reason: I know of their nasty, dirty game and how they rip off tens of millions of innocent investors. The latest manipulation in silver and its near vertical ascent to $50 an ounce has added a new component: While silver inventories were “allegedly” draining away to next to nothing, JP Morgan and other big investment banks were also allegedly short massive amounts of silver. So, the story goes, the combination of very low supplies and massive short positions that would have to be covered — made for some fantastic reasons why silver had nowhere to go but straight to the moon — and great sales pitches to get every Mom, Pop, Grandma, Grandpa and even the kids and grandkids into silver. But as I told you before, I’ve known of these charades in the silver market for decades. It never changes. All this is also why I have recommended very strongly to my followers that they stay largely out of the silver market during this period. It’s also why — even though I am now long-term bullish on silver per the signals my systems generated in March and April — I still refused to buy any silver bullion or silver miners on an aggressive basis, waiting instead for the inevitable crash to unfold first. Now, in just the past week, silver has crashed a full 30%, one of its worst slides of all time.
Last week’s silver panic has wiped out many who didn’t listen to me, many more who bought into silver at or near the $50 level, and it’s been such a price collapse that the margin calls in the silver futures market are reverberating all over the world.
It’s the charlatans, thieves and fraudsters in the silver market who are at it again. Profiting at the average investor’s expense.
The charlatans in the silver market are big inside speculators who routinely take delivery of the nearby silver futures contract, in physical form — but instead of keeping it stored in official warehouses, where the movement of silver is reported publicly, they move it offshore, to places like Switzerland and London, and into warehouses where the holdings do not have to be reported.
They do this over a period of time, draining official reporting warehouses of silver to make it look like there’s a massive silver shortage.
Then, as silver prices start to rise, the little guy gets sucked into the rally. This charade keeps going until silver’s price action goes parabolic and the average investor is jumping into it with both feet.
Next, the charlatans who have removed silver from reporting inventories then begin to dump the silver back on the market, all over the world, in London, Singapore, Zurich. This starts a cascade of selling and liquidation, slamming the unknowing, innocent investor.
All along, this operation, a giant market manipulation, is aided and abetted by silver dealers, who make their living selling you silver ingots, bars and coins. They can’t sell silver unless it’s going up.
And most recently, by investment banks that do nothing but deny that they’re building up massive short positions to take advantage of the inevitable crash that will come.
The only ones who make money are A) the large speculators who take the silver off the market to make it appear that there’s a shortage … B) the dealers selling investors silver … and C) the investment houses who have sold short into the rallies.
The average investor loses, usually big time, getting caught in the middle.
The fact of the matter is that, yes, while demand for silver is rising and silver is now in a long-term bull market — these silver manipulations will continue, there will be many of them going forward, creating giant rallies and crashes …
And if you don’t know what’s happening in the silver market, you are bound to buy at the wrong time and get slaughtered by those who continue to play with this market.
There’s a reason traders in the know call the silver market the “devil’s metal.” It is, I repeat, the most manipulated market in the world.
I will recommend aggressive investments in silver. But not until I see that this latest manipulation has run its course.
So that you fully understand the risks in this market, here are the critical levels that could easily be tested before the latest silver crash is over, and before the real, long-term bull market in silver really gets going …
Major support levels in silver …
$37.00
$30.52
$29.05
$23.84
$23.25
Since silver has now already broken the first level of support at the $37 level, I fully expect we will see at least a test of the $30.52 level, and probably even lower, as low as $23.25, before the long-term bull market in silver resumes.
Until then, or until I give you the all clear to start buying silver and silver-related investments, I strongly suggest all investors steer clear of “the devil’s market.”
Now, let’s take a look at gold: Naturally, gold has pulled back along with the crash in silver. But, gold has held support at much higher levels than silver has. That’s a testament to why I believe gold is a much safer bet than silver over the long haul. It’s far more stable, and while it too can be manipulated, it is not manipulated like the silver market is.
Look for support in gold at the $1,477 level followed by $1,423. If gold should fail to hold the $1,423 level on a closing basis, the short-term picture in gold will change to bearish.
Crude oil: As you know, I forecast a topping formation in oil at the $108 to $110 level. Oil has now plunged from $114 to back under $100 a barrel.
I believe an intermediate-term top is in place in oil, and we could see it move back to the mid-$80 level before the next bull leg unfolds.
The dollar: I remain long-term bearish on the dollar. There is no question it is headed much lower. However, in the short term, a rally is way overdue. It has likely begun this past week, with the U.S. Dollar Index holding the 72.50 level. The triggers: The ECB holding rates steady, while more and more talk of the Fed exiting its loose monetary policy is high.
The Fed will try to exit, but it won’t work. When they come back into the economy with QEIII, the dollar will start tumbling again.
The Dow Industrials: Expect a very wide trading range over the next two to three months, with the Dow ranging between 12,170 on the lower end, and 13,800 on the upper end. Yes, that’s a wide range, but I see no disasters ahead for the Dow. Even though it may be very choppy for stocks over the next few months, the blue chip Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are preparing to make a major move higher in the coming years.
Bonds: Yields may fall a tad going forward and bond prices bounce, as the economy slows, but stay out of U.S. and European sovereign bonds, no matter what. They are a disaster in the making.
Best wishes,
Larry
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